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At first, the former US president appeared to adopt a firm stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing statements of "significant consequences" during the summer in case Putin persisted hindering ceasefire discussions, the former president ultimately enacted substantial sanctions on Russia's two largest energy firms, these major energy companies. This decision significantly affected Putin's capability to finance his military invasion in the region.

But, with his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, that was created by both nations' representatives lacking Ukrainian or EU involvement, he has seemingly gone back to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Invasion

Trump's plan would essentially benefit Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing the country's political freedom in peril. Although ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", significant aspects of the proposal in reality weaken that essential independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate past, Trump seems to consider the war as a mere border issue, like ceding Russia a portion of Ukraine's soil will please the president. Yet, Putin's invasion is not only about controlling a charred swath of economically weakened territory in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's clear desire to eliminate it so it ceases to functions as an enticing example for the Russian citizens of the accountable leadership that his growing autocracy denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

While maintaining in status the currently divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would require the nation to surrender the whole this eastern territory. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been unable to seize in over a ten years of warfare, this concession would render Ukrainian military defenses dangerously compromised.

The area is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a key obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, providing Russian forces a open route to the capital in case he later opt to renew the hostilities.

Military Limitations

Additionally, in a step that would enable renewed hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to cut the scale of its armed forces from their present large number soldiers to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the initiative imposes no similar limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's campaign to portray Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as radicals, the plan states: "Any radical belief system and practices must be rejected and prohibited." As if to emphasize this element, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal places no condition that Putin endanger his regime by holding elections in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade other states" and to "establish in legislation its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has violated comparable accords in the previous instances – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to respect the nation's sovereignty in return for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a handback of captured areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should anyone trust Russia now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external protection assurances. Although the proposal threatens a "strong coordinated defense action" should the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the details range from unclear to concerning. The proposal would not just block Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit member states from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, thus preventing the security presence, likely headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to prevent Putin from restoring his reduced military, restocking, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

Another parallel deal apparently would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any subsequent "significant, intentional, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." This implies a military response. But unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best deterrent against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, such as the US administration, to react with force to Putin's aggression, something they have {not