A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
